Almaty. April 30. Information Center - Kazakhstan’s
economic growth is forecast to rebound this year and accelerate in 2022, if the
COVID-19 pandemic continues to subside and there are no delays to the roll-out
of the COVID-19 vaccination program, Times of Central Asia reports citing a new
Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021, ADB’s flagship
annual economic publication, projected Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product
(GDP) growth at 3.2% in 2021, supported by recovering commodity output and
prices, and reflecting a gradual resumption of most services. In 2022, growth
is forecast to rise to 3.5%, supported by larger investments and rising
hydrocarbon production and manufacturing.
“Boosting investment in research and development,
strengthening the financial system, particularly capital markets, and
increasing public spending on education are essential for promoting
innovation,” said ADB Country Director for Kazakhstan Nariman Mannapbekov. “This
will help to sustain stronger economic growth.”
The report noted that Kazakhstan’s dependence on commodity
exports and limited innovation made the economy vulnerable to external shocks. The
experience of recent crises show that Kazakhstan needs to foster innovation to
improve its economic resilience and drive the recovery from COVID-19. After the
2008-2009 global financial crisis and the 2015 oil price plunge, the Kazakh
economy rebounded but growth was slower.
The report forecast that industry will expand by 2.0% in
2021 benefitting from continued government support for manufacturing, and by
2.8% in 2022 as mining picks up to meet recovering global demand for
commodities. As transport, trade, and catering benefit from continuous lifting
of lockdown measures, services are projected to rebound by 3.8% in 2021 before
tapering to 3.4% in 2022.
Construction is forecast to expand by 9.4% in 2021 supported
by state housing and infrastructure programs, and by 6.6% in2022. Inagriculture, growth is
forecast at 3.3% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, reflecting limited investment
Inflation is projected to decelerate slightly to 6.5% in
2021 and 6.2% in 2022 thanks to a more stable currency. Price controls for
staple goods and the central bank’s inflation targeting efforts are expected to
trim food price inflation and maintain price stability.